August WASDE maintains forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production
August 12, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Aug. 12. The forecast for soybean production was revised up.
The 2024-’25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, exports and ending stocks. Soybean production for 2024-’25 is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million on higher acres and yield. Harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up 1 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month.
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Soybean supplies for 2024-’25 are projected at 4.9 billion bushels, up 11% when compared to last year. With soybean exports up 25 million bushels on higher supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 560 million bushels, up 125 million from last month.
The USDA currently expects 14 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, a forecast maintained from the July WASDE. An estimated 12.9 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2023-’24, up from 12.491 billion pounds for 2022-’23.
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The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-’25 is forecast at $10.80 per bushel, down 30 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast at $320 per short ton, down $10. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 42 cents per pound.
Global 2024-‘25 oilseed production is raised 4.5 million tons to 690.5 million on higher soybean and rapeseed output partly offset by lower sunflowerseed, cottonseed, peanuts, and palm kernel. Global 2024-‘25 soybean production is increased 6.9 million tons to 428.7 million on higher production for the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, India, and Benin. Foreign production is revised up based on higher area forecasts from government reports. Global soybean exports are increased 1 million tons to 181.2 million on higher exports for the U.S., Ukraine, Russia, and Benin partly offset by lower shipments for Argentina. Soybean imports are raised for Egypt, the EU, Iran, and Turkey.
Global 2024-‘25 soybean ending stocks are increased 6.5 million tons to 134.3 million mainly on higher stocks for China, the U.S., and Argentina partly offset by lower stocks for Brazil. To note, stock revisions for China and Brazil derive from changes to trade in the 2023-‘24 year. China’s 2023-‘24 imports are raised to 111.5 million tons based on higher shipments by exporters. Brazil exports are raised to 105 million tons on the strong shipment pace through July.
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