The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2023 renewable diesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released July 11. The forecast for 2024 renewable diesel production, however, was reduced.

The EIA currently expects renewable diesel production to average 161,000 barrels per day in 2023, up 2.2 percent when compared to its June forecast of 157,000 barrels per day. The agency currently expects renewable diesel production to average 219,000 barrels per day in 2024, down 2.8 percent when compared to its June forecast of 225,000 barrels per day.

If realized, the 161,000 barrel per day forecast for 2023 represents a 66 percent increase when compared to 2022, while the 219,000 barrel per day forecast for 2024 would represent a 36 percent increase when compared to the previous year.

The EIA attributed its reduced 2024 forecast to the final rule issued by U.S. EPA last month setting Renewable Fuel Standard renewable volume obligations (RVOs) for 2023, 2024 and 2025. The agency’s increased forecast for 2023 renewable diesel production is a result of recent production increases.

Prior to the July STEO, the EIA said it assumed that some of the announced capacity additions for renewable diesel would not be completed because of the possibility of increased feedstock costs or decreased credit values. In response to the final RFS rule, the agency now assumes lower plant utilizations and more proposed plants to be canceled than it did previously. Nonetheless, the EIA said it still expects production growth based on its assumption that some of the announced projects will come online in the next 18 months.