The U.S. Energy Information Administration has maintained its forecast for 2023 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 11. The outlook for 2024 ethanol production was reduced slightly. Similarly, the agency maintained its forecast for 2023 ethanol blending, but revised down its forecast for 2024 ethanol blending.

The EIA currently predicts 2023 fuel ethanol production will average 1 million barrels per day, a forecast maintained from the March STEO. The agency reduced its forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol production to 1.01 million barrels per day, down from last month’s forecast of 1.02 million barrels per day.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2023, falling to 980,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter, and increasing to 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Production averaged 1.01 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year.

Moving into 2024, production is expected to average 1.01 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day this year, a forecast maintained from the March STEO. The EIA, however, now predicts fuel ethanol blending will be maintained at 930,000 barrels per day in 2024, down from the March forecast for 940,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day last year.