The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2022 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released May 10. The outlook for 2023 production was reduced, while ethanol blending forecasts for both years were maintained.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.01 million barrels per day in 2022, a forecast maintained from the April STEO. The agency now predicts fuel ethanol production will fall to an average of 990,000 barrels per day in 2023, down slightly from the agency’s previous forecast of 1 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production averaged 980,000 barrels per day last year.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA predicts fuel ethanol production will average 980,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2022, increasing to 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.03 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year.

Moving into 2023, production is currently expected to average 970,000 barrels per day during the first quarter, 990,000 barrels per day during the second and third quarters, and 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is expected to average 920,000 barrels per day in both 2022 and 2023, a forecast maintained from the April STEO. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2021.