EIA reduces 2025 biodiesel production forecast, maintains other biobased diesel outlooks
February 20, 2025
BY Erin Voegele
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its forecast for 2025 biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 11. The forecasts for renewable diesel production and the production of other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), were maintained.
The EIA currently predicts biodiesel production will average 100,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s outlook of 110,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that biodiesel production will average 100,000 barrels per day in 2026. Biodiesel production was at 110,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA currently estimates net biodiesel imports were at 20,000 barrels per day last year, up from the January estimate of 10,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecasts that net biodiesel imports for 2025 and 2026 will be at zero.
Advertisement
Biodiesel consumption is currently expected to average 100,000 barrels per day in 225 and 2026. Both forecasts were maintained from the January STEO. Biodiesel consumption as at 120,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA maintained its forecasts that renewable diesel production will average 230,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel production was at 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to average 20,000 barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 30,000 barrels per day last year.
Advertisement
Renewable diesel consumption is expected to average 250,000 barrels per day this year and 270,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the January STEO. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The production of other biofuels, defined to include renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including SAF, alternative jet fuel and biojet; renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 50,000 barrels per day in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month. Production of other biofuels was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of other biofuels are forecast at zero for 2025 and 2026, unchanged from the January STEO. Net imports were also at zero for 2024.
The EIA maintained its forecast that the consumption of other biofuels will average 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, increasing to 50,000 barrels per day in 2026. Consumption was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Related Stories
The U.S. exported 15,050.4 metric tons of biodiesel and biodiesel blends of B30 or greater in March, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on May 6. Biodiesel imports were at 14,991.9 metric tons for the month.
The Canadian International Trade Tribunal on May 5 announced that a preliminary investigation launched earlier this year did not find evidence that imports of U.S. renewable diesel are causing harm to Canada’s domestic renewable diesel industry.
Marathon Petroleum Corp. on May 6 reported improved first quarter EBITDA for its renewable diesel segment on increased utilization of its facilities, particularly the Martinez biorefinery in California, and higher margins.
According to a new economic contribution study released by the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association on May 6, Iowa biofuels production has begun to reflect stagnant corn demand throughout the agriculture economy.
SAF production is growing in the U.S. as new capacity comes online. U.S. production of “other biofuels,” the category the U.S. EIA uses to capture SAF data in its reports, approximately doubled from December 2024 to February 2025.
Upcoming Events
