February WASDE maintains forecast for soybean oil prices
February 19, 2025
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 11. The outlook for soybean oil prices was also unchanged.
According to the agency, current U.S. 2024-’25 soybean supply and use projections are unchanged from January.
The USDA maintained its forecast that 13.6 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, up from 12.989 billion pounds for 2023-’24 and 12.51 billion pounds for 2022-’23.
The season-average soybean price is projected at $10.10 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $310 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
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Global 2024-‘25 soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, higher use, and lower ending stocks. Production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness during January. Brazilian soybean production is unchanged at 169 million tons. Beneficial weather in the Center-West is boosting soybean prospects, but drier weather in the south accelerated soybean development at the expense of yields.
Global soybean crush is raised on higher crush for Brazil. The increase is driven by favorable crush margins, strong biofuel demand, and the pace of soybean meal exports to date. Partially offsetting is lower soybean crush and soybean meal exports for Paraguay on lower supplies. With negligible changes to soybean exports, global ending stocks are reduced 4 million tons to 124.3 million on lower stocks for Argentina and Brazil.
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