The USDA reduced its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 10. The forecast for soybean oil prices is unchanged. 

According to USDA, 2024-’25 soybean production is currently estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 200,000. Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel. With lower production, slightly higher imports, and unchanged exports and crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million. The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel.

The USDA currently forecasts that 13.6 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, down from last month’s forecast of 14 billion pounds. Soybean oil use in biofuel production was at 12.989 billion pounds for 2023-’24 and at 12.51 billion pounds for 2022-’23.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-‘25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $10 to $310 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound. 

Foreign 2024-‘25 oilseed production is lowered 300,000 tons to 551.9 million, mainly on lower rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production for Russia and China. 

Global soybean exports are unchanged while global soybean crush is raised 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million. Crush is higher for Brazil on strong first-quarter soybean meal exports. The Iraq soybean balance sheet was also added to the database as soybean imports have risen over the past few years, which contributed to higher month-overmonth global crush. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 128.4 million tons, down 3.5 million, mainly on lower stocks for the United States and Brazil.