June WASDE maintains 2024-’25 forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production
June 12, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 12. The overall 2024-’25 outlook for soybeans includes higher beginning and ending stocks.
Higher beginning stocks reflect reduced crush for 2023-’24, down 10 million bushels on lower soybean meal domestic use that is partly offset by higher exports. Soybean oil domestic use is also lowered for 2023-’24 and partly offset by higher exports. With increased supplies for 2024-’25 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 455 million bushels, up 10 million. The soybean oil price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged, at $330 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
The USDA currently expects 14 million pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, a forecast maintained from the May WASDE. An estimated 13 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2023-’24, up from 12.491 billion pounds for 2022-’23.
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The 2024-‘25 global soybean outlook includes lower beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks for the U.S. are offset by lower stocks for Brazil and Paraguay. Brazil’s stocks are lowered on a downward revision to 2023-‘24 production, down 1 million to 153 million, reflecting further in-country assessments of flooding in Rio Grande do Sul by Brazil’s state agency Emater. Paraguay’s 2024-‘25 beginning stocks are lowered on higher exports for the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 600,000 tons to 127.9 million.
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