April 16, 2013
BY Jason Sagebiel
April 1—Values imploded at February month-end as corn stocks were much greater than expected. New crop corn acres were in line with what the trading community anticipated, however, values collapsed on the devaluation of old crop acres. The USDA placed corn March 1 stocks at 5.40 billion bushels, 380 million bushels above expectations. This suggests that December corn stocks were skewed as the new crop corn last year was harvested earlier and, possibly, demand may not be as high as anticipated. That very well could be as distillers grains continues to remain at historically high prices relative to corn, and other feedstuffs continue to trade at higher-than-normal values. So the high price of corn has been able to price itself out of the feed market and the world market. Theoretically, one could assume carry-out would increase by about 300 million bushels but the USDA may not make it that simple. Nonetheless, this could assume a 900-plus million bushel carryout if no increases are made in ethanol or the export demand.
New crop corn acres were estimated at 97.282 million acres, up 127 million acres from a year ago. Acreage in Iowa was estimated to be unchanged from last year while Illinois is expected to reduce corn plantings by 600,000 acres and Minnesota and North Dakota increase acreage by 250,000 and 500,000 respectively. The Delta states and Texas are expected to plant about 1 million more acres than a year ago at the expense of cotton, although this could alter slightly.
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The USDA significantly increased its estimate for 2025-’26 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 11. The outlook for soybean production was revised down.
U.S. fuel ethanol capacity fell slightly in April, while biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity held steady, according to data released by the U.S. EIA on June 30. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to the previous month.
The U.S. EPA on July 8 hosted virtual public hearing to gather input on the agency’s recently released proposed rule to set 2026 and 2027 RFS RVOs. Members of the biofuel industry were among those to offer testimony during the event.
The U.S. exported 31,160.5 metric tons of biodiesel and biodiesel blends of B30 and greater in May, according to data released by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service on July 3. Biodiesel imports were 2,226.2 metric tons for the month.
The USDA’s Risk Management Agency is implementing multiple changes to the Camelina pilot insurance program for the 2026 and succeeding crop years. The changes will expand coverage options and provide greater flexibility for producers.