A new report by Lux Research says while China and India will dominate growth in Asia’s renewable sectors thanks to aggressive mandates, government support and cost advantages, their aggressive, self-imposed targets will not be met—even with strong growth.

India is betting on “risky jatropha” for biodiesel, according to Lux, as it races to meet an aggressive 20 percent biofuels mandate for 2017. “But biofuels will account for less than 0.6 percent of its diesel fuel and 0.3 percent of its gasoline in 2017,” the company finds.  

“Both countries have huge populations and huge fuel demands, and both governments extend support for ethanol and biodiesel,” said Nancy Wu, Lux Research analyst and an author of the report titled, “Planning for the Long-Term in Asia Pacific Alternative Fuel Markets.”

“However,” she added, “challenges with cost, feedstock availability and infrastructure will still hold them back from ambitious targets.”

Lux evaluated ethanol, biodiesel and natural gas vehicles in 10 of the largest markets in Asia-Pacific.

India will outpace Asia's growth in biodiesel, according to Lux. “Indonesia, China and Malaysia are the three dominant nations in biodiesel, each driven by challenging mandates,” the company stated. “Indonesia is targeting 20 percent adoption by 2025 while Malaysia positions itself to be a dominant exporter with 143 MMgy in 2015. India's growth, however, at an impressive 18.5 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2017, will outpace the rest of the region, which will post a 3.9 percent CAGR through 2017.” Click here for more information.