November WASDE maintains forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production
November 8, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 8. The U.S. season-average price for soybean oil was revised up 1 cent per pound.
The current 2024-’25 U.S. soybean outlook is for lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks. Soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, down 121 million on reduced yields. The largest production changes are for Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota.
Exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1.8 billion on lower supplies and sales to date. Crush is lowered 15 million bushels to 2.4 billion, reflecting lower soybean meal and domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean ending stocks are lowered 80 million bushels to 470 million bushels.
The USDA currently expects 14 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, up from 13 billion pounds for 2023-’24. Soybean oil use in biofuel production was at 12.51 billion pounds for 2022-’23.
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The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-’25 is forecast unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $320 per short ton. The soybean oil price is increased 1 cent to 43 cents per pound.
The global 2024-‘25 soybean supply and demand forecast includes lower production, higher exports, lower crush, and lower ending stocks. Global 2024-‘25 soybean production is lowered 3.5 million tons to 425.4 million, mainly on lower production for the U.S. and India. Production for India is lowered 200,000 tons to 12.6 million on information from the Soybean Processors Association of India. Global soybean exports are raised on higher shipments for Brazil, Canada, and Benin largely offset by lower U.S. shipments. Imports are raised for Pakistan. Higher crush for Pakistan is more than offset by lower crush for the U.S. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 2.9 million tons to 131.7 million mainly on lower stocks for the United States, Brazil, and Argentina.
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