The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Oct. 11. The outlook for soybean oil prices is also unchanged. 

The USDA currently expects 2024-’25 soybean production at 4.6 billion bushels, down 4 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.3 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 53.1 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel when compared to the September outlook. With lower production partly offset by slightly higher beginning stocks, supplies are lowered 2 million bushels to 4.9 billion. With a slightly lower residual and no change to exports and crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 550 million bushels.

The USDA has maintained its forecast that 14 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, up from 13 billion pounds for 2023-’24. Soybean oil use in biofuel production was at 12.51 billion pounds for 2022-’23.

The U.S. average soybean price for 2024-’25 is unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively. 

 Globally, the outlook for soybean production is lowered for Ukraine on harvest results. The outlook for global 2024-’25 soybean exports are lowered 100,000 tons to 181.5 million with lower exports for Ukraine. Soybean imports and crush are lowered for Thailand. Global soybean ending stocks are up 100,000 tons to 134.6 million with higher stocks for China, Argentina, and Brazil mostly offset by lower stocks for Ukraine, Turkey and Iran.