<p>The corn market stayed in a constant trade range during February. The USDA did not offer any new exciting data in the report this month but did lower carryout by 50 million bushels. Overall, one must look at the corn end-user margins.&nbsp; Ethanol, as well as other industry margins, have decreased after very impressive margins in the beginning and during the fourth quarter time frame. To some extent, this has limited corn&rsquo;s ability to sustain a rally. In addition, corn has limited downside as producers hold onto corn inventory. The USDA increased corn for ethanol demand by 75 million bushels.&nbsp; This is in-line with current ethanol production run rates so any changes to the run rate could affect the number later on in the old crop year.&nbsp; Due to increases in ethanol production, the USDA was compelled to lower corn utilized in feed demand by 25 million bushels, attributing it to more coproduct production. Currently corn into feed is projected to be 5.350 billion bushels, up from last year&rsquo;s 5.036 billion bushels.&nbsp; Corn exports remained unchanged and are projected to be 1.750 billion bushels, down from last year&rsquo;s 1.917 billion bushels. The lower figure is being impacted by a larger world carryout and a rising U.S. dollar.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Currently impacting the corn market is a relatively tight cash situation. Producers seem to be content and are waiting for a weather rally, whether it arrives during spring planting or during the growing season. Nonetheless, they are eager to receive $4 cash corn at the local level and are reluctant to deviate from that price scenario at this time.&nbsp; This is limiting the downside for corn.&nbsp; So if weather issues do not come up it may be a change in the calendar that forces bushels into the marketplace later in the summer. Nearby corn futures should seem comfortable on either side of $4. The market place will be eager to see the March prospective plantings that will be released at the end of March. The USDA ag forum, which was released in mid Feb is expecting 2015/&rsquo;16 corn planted acres to be 89.0 million, as illustrated in the chart.</p>
<p>* Comments in this column are market commentary and are not to be construed as market advice.</p>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="337">
<colgroup><col width="145"></col> <col span="3" width="64"></col> </colgroup> 
<tbody>
<tr height="20">
<td width="145" height="20">May futures&nbsp;</td>
<td width="64">&nbsp;</td>
<td width="64">&nbsp;</td>
<td width="64">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20">
<td height="20">Date</td>
<td class="xl68">High</td>
<td class="xl68">Low</td>
<td class="xl68">Close</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20">
<td class="xl65" height="20">February 23, 2015</td>
<td class="xl66">3.94</td>
<td class="xl66">3.85 1/2</td>
<td class="xl66">3.86 3/4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20">
<td class="xl65" height="20">January 23, 2015</td>
<td>3.96 3/4</td>
<td class="xl67">3.90</td>
<td class="xl67">3.95 1/4</td>
</tr>
<tr height="20">
<td class="xl65" height="20">February 24, 2014</td>
<td class="xl67">4.58 3/4</td>
<td class="xl67">4.52</td>
<td class="xl67">4.57 3/4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

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2015/02/Corn-Sky_14247896500978_thumb.jpg

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The corn market stayed in a constant trade range during February. The USDA did not offer any new exciting data in the report this month but did lower carryout by 50 million bushels.

Producers watching for a spring or summer weather rally

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