After more than a decade of healthy growth for conventional biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol, the next wave of advanced biofuels is nearing commercialization. The pool of commercially available biomass-derived fuels is expanding to include advanced fuels derived from nonfood feedstocks and drop-in synthetic substitutes for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene-based jet fuel. According to a new report from Navigant Research, worldwide biofuels production will grow from 33.6 billion gallons per year (BGY) in 2013 to 61.6 BGY in 2023.

“North America is leading the transition to advanced biofuels, but healthy growth in Europe, Asia Pacific, and Latin America is helping to diversify the fuel supply for a range of transportation applications,” said Mackinnon Lawrence, principal research analyst with Navigant Research. “Although the scale-up of new production capacity will face significant headwinds in the coming decade, global biofuels production is anticipated to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 6 percent from 2013 and 2023—almost twice as fast as the growth rate for fossil-based gasoline, diesel and jet fuel over the same period.”

Today, obligatory and voluntary ethanol and biodiesel blending mandates are set in more than 40 countries. At the same time, supply-oriented policies, like the renewable fuel standard in the U.S. and the renewable energy directive in the EU, call for rapid acceleration in the production of advanced biofuels. Global biofuels production will exceed the aggregated volume of blending mandates by 2020, according to the report, even as the anticipated rollout of supply targets will exceed actual production in that same year. The next 10 years will likely see a shakeup of existing policies around biofuels to better calibrate policy objectives and actual production, the study concludes.

The report, “Market Data: Biofuels,” provides forecasts, market sizing and market share analysis for conventional ethanol, advanced ethanol, biobutanol, biodiesel, green diesel, synthetic gasoline and renewable jet fuel. The report also includes comprehensive data and forecasts for biofuels blending and supply-oriented policies. The total volume of biofuels produced by fuel type and market penetration in retail fuel markets is forecast through 2023, segmented by world region and key countries and subregions. An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.