USDA: April WASDE reduces forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production
April 11, 2025
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA reduced its outlook for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released April 10. The outlook for soybean oil pricing was revised up.
The current 2024-’25 U.S. soybean outlook is for higher imports and crush, and lower ending stocks. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 4.42 billion on higher soybean meal domestic use and soybean oil exports. Soybean oil exports are increased based on export commitments.
Soybean oil for biofuel is lowered based on pace to date. However, stronger use is forecast for the last part of the marketing year due to tariffs impacting imports of other biofuel feedstocks, like used cooking oil.
Advertisement
Advertisement
The USDA currently predicts 13.25 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to U.S. biofuel production for 2024-’25, down from the March outlook of 13.45 billion pounds. An estimated 12.989 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2023-’24, compared to 12.51 billion pounds for 2022-’23.
With soybean exports unchanged and imports increased slightly, soybean ending stocks are lowered 5 million bushels to 375 million.
Advertisement
Advertisement
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-’25 is forecast unchanged at $9.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is lowered $10 to $300 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 2 cents to 45 cents per pound.
Global 2024-‘25 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks, lower production, and higher exports, crush, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 2.7 million tons mainly on a revised 2023-‘24 crop for Brazil. After a review of 2024 disappearance data, Brazil’s 2023-‘24 production is raised 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million.
Global soybean production for 2024-‘25 is lowered 200,000 tons on lower production for Bolivia partly offset by higher output for South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, and the European Union. Global soybean crush is raised 2 million tons to 354.8 million on higher crush for Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and the U.S. Ample global soybean meal supplies, lower prices, and lower supply of alternative oilseed meals, led to increased use of soybean meal consumption globally.
Global soybean exports are raised 200,000 tons to 182.1 million. Exports are raised for Canada and Nigeria but lowered for Ukraine. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 1.1 million tons to 122.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil and the EU.
Related Stories
The USDA on April 14 announced the cancellation of its Partnerships for Climate-Smart Commodities program. Select projects that meet certain requirements may continue under a new Advancing Markets for Producers initiative.
BDI-BioEnergy International has signed a contract with Ghent Renewables BV to begin the construction of a pioneering biofuel feedstock refinery plant. Construction is underway and the facility is expected to be operational by the end of 2025.
Verity Holdings LLC, a subsidiary of Gevo Inc., has partnered with Minnesota Soybean Processors (MnSP) to implement Verity’s proprietary track and trace software. The collaboration aims to unlock additional value through export premiums.
U.S. operatable biofuels capacity increased slightly in January, with gains for ethanol, according to the U.S. EIA’s Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstock Update, released March 31. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to December.
U.S. farmers are expected to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans in 2025, down 4% when compared to last year, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s annual Prospective Plantings report, released March 31.
Upcoming Events
