USDA boosts forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production
January 12, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA increased its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 12. The price of soybean oil was revised down.
U.S. soybean production for 2023-’24 is estimated at 4.2 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month led by increases in Illinois, Missouri and North Dakota. Harvested area is estimated at 82.4 million acres, down 400,000 from the previous report. Yield is estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels.
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With slightly lower beginning stocks, soybean supplies are up 31 million bushels from last month. The soybean export and crush forecasts are unchanged. With higher supplies and slightly lower residual, ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, up 35 million. According to the USDA, the soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased imports and biofuel use, and lower exports and food, feed and other industrial use.
The USDA currently predicts 13 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-24, up from the December forecast of 12.8 billion pounds. An estimated 12.491 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2022-’23, up from 10.379 billion pounds for 2021-’22.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-’24 is projected at $12.75 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $380 per short ton, down $10. The soybean oil price is forecast at 54 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
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Global 2023-’24 soybean production is raised 100,000 tons to 399 million tons as higher production forecast for Argentina, the U.S., Russia, China, Paraguay and Bolivia are offset by lower Brazil production. Abundant early-season rainfall improved yield prospects for Argentina and Paraguay, raising production 2 million tons to 50 million and 300,000 tons to 10.3 million, respectively. China’s soybean crop is increased 300,000 tons to 20.8 million on reports from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Soybean production for Russia is raised 400,000 tons to 6.8 million on a higher yield. Conversely, soybean production for Brazil is forecast at 157 million tons, down 4 million from last month and down 3 million tons from last year’s record crop of 160 million tons. Reduced rainfall in the center-west region and northeastern states lowered yield potential.
Global soybean crush for 2023-‘24 is nearly unchanged, with lower crush for Brazil mostly offset by higher crush for Argentina, India, Bolivia, Egypt, and Thailand. Soybean meal trade is unchanged as higher exports for Argentina, India, and Bolivia offset lower Brazilian shipments.
Global soybean exports for 2023-‘24 are increased 700,000 tons to 170.9 million, with higher exports for Paraguay and Russia. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 114.6 million tons, up 400,000, mainly on higher stocks for the U.S. and Argentina partly offset by lower Brazilian stocks.
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