USDA increases estimates for 2022-’23 and 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production
September 12, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Sept. 12. The estimates for 2022-’23 and 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production were revised up.
The current soybean outlook for 2024-’25 is for lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023-’24. Soybean production for 2024-’25 is projected down 3 million bushels to 4.6 billion. With 2024-25 soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 10 million bushels from last month.
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The USDA maintained its forecast that 14 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2024-’25. The agency now estimates 13 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, up from last month’s estimate of 12.9 billion pounds. The USDA also revised up its estimate of 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production to 12.51 billion pounds, up from the August estimate of 12.491 billion pounds.
The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $10.80 per bushel. The soybean meal and soybean oil prices are also unchanged at $320 per short ton and 42 cents per pound, respectively.
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Foreign soybean production is raised 600,000 tons on higher production for Paraguay and Canada partly offset by lower output for the European Union and Serbia. Production for Paraguay is increased for 2022-‘23 through 2024-‘25 on higher area. Production in Paraguay for 2023-‘24 is raised to reflect the strong pace of exports and crush to date.
Global soybean trade for 2024-‘25 is increased to 181.6 million tons on higher exports for Paraguay and imports for Argentina. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 300,000 tons to 134.6 million as higher stocks for Argentina and Canada are partly offset by lower stocks for the United States and the EU.
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