USDA increases forecast for corn use in ethanol
January 12, 2022
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA increased its forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 12. The 2021-’22 corn outlook is for higher production, lower exports, and larger ending stocks.
Corn production is estimated at 15.115 billion bushels, up 53 million on a 300,000 acre increase in harvested area. Total corn use is virtually unchanged at 14.835 billion bushels. Exports are lowered 75 million bushels to 2.425 billion, reflecting expectations of increased competition from other exporters. Food, seed and industrial (FSI) use raised 80 million bushels.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Corn used for ethanol is raised 75 million bushels to 5.325 billion, based on data through November from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for the month of December. An estimated 5.028 million bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2020-’21, up from 4.857 million bushels in 2019-’20.
Corn ending stocks are raised 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.
Advertisement
Advertisement
Foreign corn production is forecast lower with declines for Brazil, Argentina, Kenya Mexico, the EU and Paraguay that are partially offset by an increase for Ukraine. For Argentina, dryness during December reduces yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas, although with an increase in late-planted corn area for much of the crop the critical phase of the growing season lies in the months ahead. Brazil is lowered reflecting reduced yield expectations for first-crop corn in southern Brazil.
According to the USDA, corn exports are increased for Ukraine, Pakistan and Tanzania with a reduction for Paraguay. For 2021-’21, Argentina and Brazil’s exports for the marketing year beginning in March 2021 are raised based on observed shipments to date. For 2021-’22, corn imports are raised for Kenya, Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, but lowered for Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are lower, mostly reflecting reductions for Brazil, Argentina and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 303.1 million tons, are down 2.5 million.
Related Stories
The USDA reduced its outlook for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released April 10. The outlook for soybean oil pricing was revised up.
BDI-BioEnergy International has signed a contract with Ghent Renewables BV to begin the construction of a pioneering biofuel feedstock refinery plant. Construction is underway and the facility is expected to be operational by the end of 2025.
Verity Holdings LLC, a subsidiary of Gevo Inc., has partnered with Minnesota Soybean Processors (MnSP) to implement Verity’s proprietary track and trace software. The collaboration aims to unlock additional value through export premiums.
U.S. operatable biofuels capacity increased slightly in January, with gains for ethanol, according to the U.S. EIA’s Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstock Update, released March 31. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to December.
U.S. farmers are expected to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans in 2025, down 4% when compared to last year, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s annual Prospective Plantings report, released March 31.
Upcoming Events
