USDA increases forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel production
November 28, 2023
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA increased its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Oct. 12. The estimate for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel production was also revised up.
U.S. soybean production for 2023-’24 is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 82.8 million acres. The soybean yield is currently projected at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September WASDE. The largest production changes are for Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska.
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With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 24 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and soybean oil domestic demand. Soybean oil domestic use is raised in line with an increase for 2022-’23. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 220 million bushels.
The USDA currently predicts 12.8 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, up from last month’s estimate of 12.5 billion pounds. The agency also increased its estimate for 2022-’23 soybean oil use in biofuel to 12.1 billion pounds, up from the September estimate of 11.8 billion pounds. Approximately 10.379 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2021-’22.
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The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-’24 is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $380 per short ton and 63 cents per pound, respectively.
Internationally, expected soybean production is lowered 1 million tons to 11 million tons in India, as near-record rains in September along with historically dry conditions in August negatively impacted yields. Global 2023-'24 soybean exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 168.2 million tons with lower exports expected for the U.S., partially offset by higher shipments for Brazil. Soybean imports are lowered for Pakistan. Global soybean crush is increased 800,000 tons to 328.5 million tons on higher crush for China and the U.S. China’s crush is raised 1 million tons to 97 million tons in line with higher crush and domestic soybean meal demand in the prior marketing year. Partly offsetting is lower crush for India and Pakistan on lower supplies. Global soybean ending stocks are lowered 3.6 million tons to 115.6 million, mainly on lower stocks for China, Brazil and India.
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