USDA maintains 2023-’24 forecast for corn use in ethanol
September 12, 2023
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol but reduce its estimate for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Sept. 12.
The overall 2023-’24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023-’24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022-’23.
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Corn production for 2023’24 is currently forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 800,000.
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol at 5.3 billion bushels. The agency currently estimates corn use for ethanol in 2022-’23 at 5.195 billion bushels, down from last month’s estimate of 5.225 billion bushels. Corn use for fuel ethanol production was at 5.32 billion bushels in 2021-’22.
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Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 million. With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.
According to the USDA, foreign corn production is virtually unchanged with an increase for Ukraine largely offset by a decline for the EU. Ukraine corn production is raised on an increase in yield expectations, while EU corn production is lowered based on reductions for France and Bulgaria that are partly offset by an increase for Germany.
Foreign corn ending stocks are raised 2.5 million tons WASDE-640-2 to 257.6 million, reflecting increases for Brazil, Mexico, Ukraine, and China that are partially offset by a decline for Argentina. World corn ending stocks at 314.0 million tons are up 2.9 million relative to last month.
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