The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released March 8. The forecasted soybean oil price was reduced. 

The outlook for U.S. soybean supply and use for 2023-’24 is unchanged when compared to last month. While soybean crush is unchanged, the soybean meal extraction rate is increased slightly, and higher soybean meal exports are mostly offset by lower domestic use. 

The USDA has maintained its forecast that 13 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, up from 12.491 billion pounds in 2022-’23 and 10.379 billion pounds in 2021-’22.

The U.S. season-average soybean price and the soybean meal price forecasts are unchanged for 203-’24. The soybean oil price, however, is reduced 2 cents to 49 cents per pound. 

Global soybean production is reduced 1.4 million tons on lower production for Brazil and South Africa. 

Global 2023-’24 soybean supply and demand forecast include lower beginning stocks, lower production, lower crush, higher exports, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Beginning stocks are lowered 1.4 million tons mainly on historical crush and import revisions for China. Soybean crush for China is raised for 2020-’21 to 2022-’23 based on a review of in-country estimates and supplies. Soybean imports for China for 2022-’23 are also raised to reflect shipping data by major exporters. 

Global soybean production for 2023-’24 is reduced on lower production for Brazil and South Africa. Soybean production for Brazil is lowered 1 million tons to 155 million on harvest results in Parana and poor weather conditions in Sao Paulo offset by favorable conditions in the north and Rio Grande do Sul. South African soybean production is lowered 400,000 to 2.1 million on lower yield prospects. Global crush is reduced for Brazil and South Africa on lower supplies, and lower for Ukraine on higher soybean exports. Global soybean exports are raised 3 million tons on higher shipments to date from Brazil and Ukraine. Soybean imports are raised higher imports for China, which are now 500,000 tons higher than the prior marketing year’s revised estimate. Global soybean ending socks are lowered 1.8 million tons to 114.3 million on lower stocks for Brazil that are partly offset by higher Chinese stocks.