The USDA predicts that 8.6 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biodiesel production annually by 2030, up from 8.15 billion pounds in 2021-'22, according to data released by the agency in February as part of its long-term agricultural projections through 2030.

In its projections, the USDA assumes that that the volume requirement for biomass-based diesel under the Renewable Fuel Standard will remain at 2.43 billion gallons per year through the projection period.

While the report predicts soy-based biodiesel production will increase only slightly over the next decade, the USDA projects much higher growth rates for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. The expected increase in renewable diesel and SAF production is expected to be driven by limited alternatives for heavy-duty and aviation fuel, as well as new strategic investments by oil companies.

Globally, the USDA predicts that Brazil, Indonesia, the E.U. and the U.S. will drive much of biodiesel and renewable diesel’s global expansion. SAF markets are expected to remain small but expand sharply, especially in Europe and North America.

Indonesia and Argentina are expected to remain among the world’s leading exporters of biodiesel through the projection period, with the EU, U.S. and China likely to remain the leading importers.

A full copy of the report can be downloaded from the USDA website.