WASDE maintains forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel
December 8, 2023
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 8. The expected price of soybean oil was revised down.
According to the agency, soybean supply and use projects for 2023-’24 are unchanged from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $12.90 per bushel. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $10 to $390 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 57 cents per pound, down 4 cents from last month.
The USDA currently predicts 12.8 billion pounds of soybean oil will go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the November WASDE. Soybean oil use for biofuel production is estimated at 12.491 billion pounds for 2022-’23, up from 10.379 billion pounds for 2021-’22.
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Globally, expected soybean production is lowered 1.5 million tons mainly on lower production for Brazil, reduced 2 million tons to 161 million tons reflecting hot and dry conditions in southern Mato Grosso and northeast Brazil. Partly offsetting is higher soybean production for Canada and Russia.
The global 2023-‘24 soybean outlook includes higher beginning stocks, lower production, increased exports, and slightly lower ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised mainly on a 2-million-ton increase to 160 million for Brazil’s 2022-‘23 production based on higher-than-expected use through November. Increased supplies and early exports in the 2023-‘24 marketing year (starting October 2023) led to a 2-million-ton increase to Brazil’s exports. China’s imports are also raised 2 million tons to 102.0 million on strong early season shipments by major exporters. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced slightly as higher stocks for China are offset by lower stocks for Brazil.
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