WASDE maintains forecast for soybean oil use in biofuel, reduces forecast for soybean oil prices
February 8, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its projection for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 8. The agency reduced its forecast for soybean oil prices.
The current 2023-’24 soybean outlook is for lower soybean exports and higher ending stocks. Soybean exports are forecast at 1.72 billion bushels, down 35 million from last month, reflecting the slow pace of shipments through January and strong competition with Brazil. With crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 315 million bushels, up 35 million.
The USDA currently expects 13 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2023-’24, up from 12.491 billion pounds for 2022-’23 and 10.379 billion pounds for 2021-’22.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-‘24 is forecast at $12.65 per bushel, down 10 cents from last month. The soybean meal price is forecast unchanged at $380 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 51 cents per pound, down 3 cents.
Advertisement
Global 2023-‘24 soybean supply and demand forecasts include higher beginning stocks, lower production, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month. Beginning stocks are raised 1.7 million tons mainly on a higher 2022-‘23 crop for Brazil. Brazil’s 2022-‘23 production is raised 2 million tons to 162 million on a higher area and yield, and reflects nearly finalized crush and export data through the end of the crop year. Brazil’s 2023-‘24 crop is reduced 1 million tons to 156 million as higher harvested area is offset by a lower yield on adverse weather conditions in southern Mato Grosso and Parana.
Global soybean exports for 2023-‘24 are reduced 400,000 tons to 170 million on lower shipments for the United States. Partly offsetting are higher exports for Brazil on a strong year-to-date (October-January) pace. Imports are reduced for Vietnam. Global soybean ending stocks are increased 1.4 million tons to 116 million on higher stocks for the United States and Brazil.
Advertisement
Related Stories
U.S. operatable biofuels capacity increased slightly in January, with gains for ethanol, according to the U.S. EIA’s Monthly Biofuels Capacity and Feedstock Update, released March 31. Feedstock consumption was down when compared to December.
U.S. farmers are expected to plant 83.5 million acres of soybeans in 2025, down 4% when compared to last year, according to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s annual Prospective Plantings report, released March 31.
ADM and Mitsubishi Corp. on March 27 announced the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding (MOU) to form a strategic alliance to explore potential areas of future collaboration across the agriculture value chain.
China’s exports of used cooking oil (UCO) reached a record high in 2024 but fell sharply in December after the Chinese government eliminated the 13% export tax rebate for UCO, according to a report filed with the USDA.
Ash Creek Renewables, a portfolio company of Tailwater Capital LLC, on March 20 announced it has secured exclusive licensing rights from Montana State University for a new high-performance camelina seed variety.
Upcoming Events
