According to International Grain Council expectations, another bumper crop in Brazil, a standard U.S. crop and production increases in smaller soy-producing countries are set to boost global soybean output to a new record high in 2020-’21.

After the almost one-fifth decline in production in the past season, the IGC predicts a rebound in U.S. soybean production for 2020-’21. Coupled with increases in Brazil and smaller soy-producing countries, the world's soy harvest area could grow 4 percent compared to the previous year. In combination with slight yield gains, the ICG holds out the prospect of a 7 percent production increase to a new peak of 366 million metric tons.

The U.S. area harvested in 2020-’21 is projected at 34 million hectares (84 million acres). The harvest could rise to 114.2 million tons as a result. However, with weeks to go until the sowing campaign starts, this early forecast should be taken with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile, in Canada, low prices and trade uncertainties over the disagreement with China will likely lead to a slight shrinkage in production area in 2020-’21. Nevertheless, assuming average yields, Canadian output could still rise 8 percent year-on-year to 6.6 million tons.

The IGC estimates that 2020-’21 global soybean consumption will surge to a new peak—now of 365 million tons—for the ninth year running. Consequently, world soybean output will likely cover demand.