The USDA on May 31 released its latest quarterly outlook for U.S. agricultural trade, reporting that the agency’s forecast for fiscal year (FY) 2023 ethanol exports remains unchanged at $3.6 billion. That forecast is down 11 percent when compared to last year’s record value of $4.05 billion, but is still the second highest on record, according to the agency.

In the report, the USDA said historically high export unit value for ethanol is supported by persistently elevated corn and gasoline prices. Export volumes are forecasted one-quarter below the 2018 record of 1.6 billion gallons.

According to the USDA, U.S. ethanol exports to South Korea, the European Union, India, Mexico, Nigeria and nearly all key markets are expected to falter due to inflation and cost-of-living squeeze, which lowers demand for ethanol used in nonfuel applications. The agency also notes that competitive pricing from Brazil in previous months undercut U.S. sales to several markets and sales to Brazil remain minimal.

The report indicates that Canada remains the current bright spot for U.S. ethanol exports, primarily due to higher fuel blending in Ontario. Sales volumes to Canada for the first six months of the fiscal year were up 35 percent, pushing its share of U.S. ethanol exports to 40 percent.

The value of ethanol exports for October-March FY 2022 was just over $2 billion, compared to approximately $1.67 billion during the same six-month period of FY 2023.

A full copy of the quarterly report is available on the USDA website.