December WASDE maintains outlook for soybean use in biofuel production
December 11, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 soybean oil use in biofuel production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 10. The estimate for 2023-’24 soybean use in biofuel was revised down.
The current projections for 2024-’25 soybean supply and use are unchanged from last month. Soybean oil production is raised from the November WASDE on a higher extraction rate. With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.12 billion. Food, feed and other industrial use of soybean oil is reduced 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly and similar to the 2023-’24 marketing year.
The USDA currently expects 14 billion pounds of soybean oil to go to biofuel production for 2024-’25, unchanged from last month’s outlook. The agency revised down its estimate for 2023-’24 soybean oil use in biofuel production to 12.989 billion pounds, down from the November estimate of 13 billion pounds. Approximately 12.51 billion pounds of soybean oil went to biofuel production for 2022-’23.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down 60 cents per bushel from last month. The soybean meal price forecast in reduced $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
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Globally, the outlook for soybean production is raised 1.7 million tons to 427.1 million on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia and higher yields for Canada. The global 2024-‘25 soybean outlook includes higher production, exports, crush, and ending stocks. Exports are raised for Canada and Bolivia on higher supplies, and imports are raised for Algeria and Zimbabwe. Crush is raised 1 million tons to 41.0 million for Argentina, leading to higher exports of soybean meal and oil. Soybean meal imports are raised for the EU, Algeria, Iran, and Venezuela.
Global soybean oil exports are raised 600,000 tons to 12.6 million on higher exports for Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. Higher shipments of soybean oil are offset by lower exports of palm oil, down 1.4 million tons to 46.6 million, due to reduced supplies and lower production for Indonesia in 2023-‘24 and Malaysia in 2024-‘25.
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