EIA maintains 2025, 2026 forecasts for biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF production
March 13, 2025
BY Erin Voegele
The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its outlook for 2025 and 2026 biodiesel production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 11. Production forecasts for renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) were also maintained.
Biodiesel production averaged 110,000 barrels per day in 2024. The EIA has maintained its forecasts that biodiesel production will average 100,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026.
The agency currently predicts net imports of biodiesel imports will be at zero for 2025 and 2026, a forecast maintained from the February STEO. Net imports of biodiesel were at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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Biodiesel consumption is expected to average 100,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month’s forecast. Biodiesel consumption averaged 120,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA also maintained its forecasts that renewable diesel production will average 230,000 barrels per day this year and 250,000 barrels per day next year. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of renewable diesel are expected to average 20,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from last month. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 30,000 barrels per day last year.
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The EIA has reduced its forecast for 2025 renewable diesel consumption to 240,000 barrels per day, down from the February outlook of 250,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that renewable diesel consumption will average 270,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel consumption was at 240,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The EIA maintained it forecast for 2025 and 2026 production of “other biofuels,” which renewable heating oil; renewable jet fuel, including SAF, alternative jet fuel, and biojet; renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various states of development and commercialization, at 40,000 barrels per day and 50,000 barrels per day, respectively. Production of “other biofuels” averaged 20,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of “other biofuels” are expected to be zero in both 2025 and 2026. Consumption is expected to average 40,000 barrels per day this year and 50,000 barrels per day next year. Both forecasts were maintained from the February STEO. The consumption of “other biofuels” averaged 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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