EIA publishes new forecasts for biobased diesel production, consumption
September 10, 2024
BY Erin Voegele
The U.S. Energy Information Administration on Sept. 10 began publishing new monthly forecasts for biodiesel and renewable diesel to better capture how biofuels are being consumed and overall demand for distillate fuels. The data will be published as part of the agency’s monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook.
U.S. biodiesel production is currently expected to average 110,000 barrels per day in 2024, falling to 100,000 barrels per day in 2025. Biodiesel production was at 110,000 barrels per day last year.
Biodiesel net imports were at 20,000 barrels per day last year and are expected to remain at that level in 2024, falling to -10,000 barrels per day in 2025.
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Biodiesel consumption is expected to average 120,000 barrels per day in 2024, falling to 90,000 barrels per day in 2025. Biodiesel consumption averaged 130,000 barrels per day in 2023.
U.S. renewable diesel production is expected to average 210,000 barrels per day in 2024, increasing to 240,000 barrels per day in 2025. Renewable diesel production was at 170,000 barrels per day last year.
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Net imports of renewable diesel were at 20,000 barrels per day last year and are expected to increase to 30,000 barrels per day this year before returning to 20,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Renewable diesel consumption was at 190,000 barrels per day last year, and is expected to increase to 240,000 barrels per day this year and 260,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The production of other biofuels, which includes renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), alternative jet fuel, and biojet), renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels at are in various stages of development and commercialization, is expected to average 20,000 barrels per day this year and 40,000 barrels per day next year. Production of these fuels averaged 20,000 barrels per day in 2023.
The EIA did not report any expected net imports for the category of other biofuels. Consumption is expected to average 20,000 barrels per day in 2024 and 40,000 barrels per day in 2025, compared to 20,000 barrels per day consumed in 2023.
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