EIA reduces production forecasts for biobased diesel, increases forecast for other fuels, including SAF
April 11, 2025
BY Erin Voegele
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its 2025 forecasts for renewable diesel and biodiesel in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 10. The outlook for “other biofuel” production, which includes sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), was raised.
The EIA currently predicts renewable diesel production will average 220,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from last month’s outlook of 230,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that renewable diesel production will average 250,000 barrels per day in 2026. Renewable diesel production averaged 210,000 barrels per day last year.
Net imports of renewable diesel are now expected to average -10,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, compared to last month’s outlook of 20,000 barrels per day. Net imports of renewable diesel were at 30,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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The EIA currently predicts renewable diesel consumption will average 210,000 barrels per day this year, down from the March outlook of 240,000 barrels per day. The agency also revised down its outlook for 2026 renewable diesel consumption to 250,000 barrels per day, down from last month’s forecast of 270,000 barrels per day. Renewable diesel consumption averaged 240,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA expects biodiesel production to average 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from the March outlook of 100,000 barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that biodiesel production will average 100,000 barrels per day in 2026. Biodiesel production was at 110,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net imports of biodiesel are expected to be zero for both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from the March outlook. Net imports of biodiesel were at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
The EIA reduced its forecast for 2025 biodiesel consumption to 90,000 barrels per day, down from the previous outlook of 100,000 barrels per day. The forecast for 2026 biodiesel consumption, however, was maintained at 100,000 barrels per day. Biodiesel consumption averaged 120,000 barrels per day in 2024.
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The 2025 and 2026 forecasts for the production of “other biofuels,” defined to include renewable heating oil, renewable jet fuel (SAF, alternative jet fuel, and biojet), renewable naphtha, renewable gasoline, and other emerging biofuels that are in various states of development and commercialization, were increased to 50,000 barrels per day and 60,000b barrels per day, respectively, up from the previous forecasts of 40,000 and 50,000 barrels per day. The production of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day in 2024.
Net exports for “other biofuels” are forecast at zero for both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from 2024. Both forecasts were maintained from the March STEO.
Consumption of “other biofuels” is currently expected to reach 50,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 60,000 barrels per day in 2026, up from last month’s respective forecasts of 40,000 barrels per day and 50,000 barrels per day. The consumption of “other biofuels” was at 20,000 barrels per day last year.
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