USDA lowers forecast for 2022-'23 corn use in ethanol production
February 9, 2023
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA lowered its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 8. The outlook for corn ending stocks was increased.
The agency reduced its 2020-’23 forecast for corn use in ethanol by 25 million bushels, based on data through December from the USDA’s Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for the month of January.
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The USDA currently expects 5.25 billion bushels of corn to go to corn ethanol production for 2022-’23, down from the January projection of 5.275 billion bushels. An estimated 5.326 billion bushels of corn went to corn ethanol production in 2021-’22, up from 5.028 billion bushels in 2020-’21.
With no other use changes, the forecast for U.S. corn ending stocks is up 25 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.70 per bushel.
Globally, the 2022-’23 forecast for foreign corn production is down, with a decline for Argentina partially offset by increases for the Philippines and Vietnam. For Argentina, production is cut based on reductions to both area and yield.
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Major global trade changes for 2022-’23 include higher projected corn exports for Brazil, Ukraine, Paraguay, Tukey and Indonesia, with a reduction for Argentina. For 2021-’22, Argentina’s exports for the marketing year beginning March 2022 are lowered based on observed shipments to date, while Brazil is raised. Corn impots for 2022-’23 are increased for the EU, with partly offsetting reductions for Indonesia and Malaysia. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, with declines for Ukraine and Indonesia that are partly offset by increases for Brazil and Canada. Global corn ending stocks, at 295.3 million tons, are down 1.1 million.
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